Higher inflation in the netherlands in september not only due to fuel
中文标题
荷兰9月通胀上升并非仅由燃料所致
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Dutch headline HICP inflation rose to 3.0% YoY in September from 2.8% in August. Fuel was the main driver, with motor fuel prices up 27.3% YoY, while services inflation accelerated to 3.8% and mobile phone prices also contributed. Supermarket food, especially meat, and takeaway food dampened the headline. ING expects inflation to peak around 3.5%-4% in Q1 2027 as higher energy and wholesale food costs gradually pass through, though indirect effects should be smaller than in 2022-2023.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 10/13/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- 2027 · 2022
Key arguments
- Fuel was the main driver of the acceleration in Dutch HICP inflation, with motor fuel prices up 27.3% YoY, also indirectly lifting travel services and package holidays.
- Services inflation remains the main source of inflation, contributing 1.8% to headline HICP and accelerating to 3.8% YoY, driven partly by cinema, theatre, concert and accommodation prices.
- Supermarket food, especially meat, and takeaway food made the largest disinflationary contributions, helping keep Dutch inflation below the eurozone average of 3.8%.
- ING expects inflation to peak in Q1 2027 at around 3.5%-4%, with lagged pass-through of energy and wholesale food costs, though weaker pricing power and fewer indirect effects than in 2022-2023.
Key numbers
- Dutch headline HICP inflation, September
- 3.0% YoY
- Dutch headline HICP inflation, August
- 2.8% YoY
- Dutch motor fuel prices, September
- 27.3% YoY
- Dutch services inflation, September
- 3.8% YoY
- Eurozone HICP inflation, September
- 3.8% YoY
Main risks
- Lagged effects from energy and fuel prices could be larger than expected, pushing inflation above the 3.5%-4% Q1 2027 peak forecast.
- Rising international wholesale prices for raw foodstuffs such as grains, oils and fat could translate into stronger food inflation than currently anticipated.
- The large share of Dutch households on fixed energy contracts (53%-56%) delays pass-through, making the inflation path uncertain and potentially extending elevated inflation.
Corresponding source evidence
Mobile phones, too, played a role in driving up headline inflation, likely due to higher prices for ICT components from the AI boom.
For headline HICP, we expect inflation to peak in the first quarter of 2027 at around 3.5% to 4%.
· 2027Generally, we see fewer indirect effects from energy and fuel prices than in 2022-2023, though.
· 2022
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 10/13/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction