Europe is de risking without deglobalising

中文标题

欧洲正在去风险化，而非去全球化

ING THINK10/21/2026updated 10/21/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

European firms are not reshoring: reshoring was under 1% of euro-area restructuring events since 2019 versus about 4% for offshoring. Instead they acquire vertically related firms, a share that rose from ~12% in 2015 to almost 18% in 2023 and ~16-17% now, with upstream deals concentrated in critical materials and energy and shifting toward other EU targets.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 10/21/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: 2023

Key arguments

Reshoring has been marginal; corporate de-risking occurs through ownership of suppliers rather than relocating production.
Vertical deal share rose from ~12% in 2015 to almost 18% in 2023 and ~16-17% lately, and the trend predates the pandemic.
Upstream acquisitions rose most in critical materials (16.5% to 20.3%) and energy (4.8% to 8.1%), while electronics were stable and machinery declined.
Ownership shifts toward other EU targets (18.1% to 24.8%), while non-EU targets fell (24.1% to 16.7%); domestic targets held at 58.5%.

Key numbers

Reshoring share of euro-area restructuring events since 2019: <1%
Offshoring share of restructuring events: ~4%
Vertical deal share, 2015 / 2023 / latest: ~12% / ~18% / ~16-17%
Upstream deals: critical materials, 2015-19 vs 2023-25: 16.5% vs 20.3%
EU importers adjusting supply chains, 2023 vs 2025: 50% vs 37%

Main risks

Vertical deals may reflect ordinary consolidation or synergies rather than supplier security; deal values are volatile and often undisclosed.
Higher capital commitment and ownership could raise production costs and reduce flexibility to switch suppliers or technologies.
Policy measures to strengthen value chains may raise cross-border EU investment without lifting domestic output or employment.

Corresponding source evidence

In its 16 October conclusions, the European Council called for renewed efforts to reduce dependencies alongside measures to promote industrial renewal, innovation and investment.
A deal is considered vertically related when the acquirer and target operate at different stages of the same supply chain, defined as an input-output link of at least 5% between their industries.
Upstream acquisitions are becoming more European Same-country targets remain dominant, accounting for 58.5% of upstream acquisitions in 2023-2025. · 2023

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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