Dutch hospitality 2026 consumer caution keeps volume growth flat

中文标题

荷兰酒店餐饮业 2026：消费者谨慎令销量增长持平

ING THINK09/22/2026updated 10/17/2026

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Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

ING expects little to no volume growth in the Dutch hospitality industry in 2026, a third consecutive weak year, with revenue growth coming almost entirely from prices projected to rise around 5%. ING payment data show restaurant and café sales volumes fell 1.6% in H1 2026 despite stronger consumer spending, while overnight stays dropped 1.5%, hit partly by the January VAT rise on accommodation. Even 2027 volume growth is forecast at only about 0.5%.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/22/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: 2026 · 2027 · January 2026 · April 2026

Key arguments

Consumer caution and geopolitical uncertainty keep hospitality demand stagnant, with price rises rather than volume driving revenue.
Restaurants and cafés did not benefit from stronger Q2 consumer spending; H1 volumes fell 1.6% while turnover rose nearly 3% on prices alone.
The January 2026 VAT increase on accommodation from 9% to 21% made rooms and holiday homes about 11% more expensive, cutting overnight stays; campsites were exempt and gained price competitiveness.
Operators are turning to productivity measures and cost control as price increases approach the limit of consumer willingness to pay.

Key numbers

2026 hospitality price growth (forecast): ~5% (2025: 4%)
H1 2026 restaurant and café sales volume change: -1.6% year-on-year
H1 2026 overnight stays change: -1.5% (holiday parks -2.5%; hotels ~-2%)
VAT on accommodation from January 2026: raised from 9% to 21%; prices ~11% higher
2027 volume growth forecast: ~0.5%

Main risks

Two-thirds of surveyed Dutch consumers already consider café and restaurant prices excessively high, limiting scope for further price increases.
Continuous pressure from labour, rental and procurement costs keeps squeezing margins, especially for smaller operators with limited financial resources or outdated business models.
A widening divide between larger, adaptable businesses and smaller strugglers points to more closures and acquisitions.

Corresponding source evidence

Hospitality prices are projected to increase by around 5% this year Despite stronger consumer spending in the second quarter, restaurants and cafés have yet to benefit from this trend Stagnating volume growth in 2026 In 2026, we expect little to no volume growth in the Dutch hospitality industry. · 2026
A meaningful recovery remains distant; even in 2027, volume growth is projected to reach only around 0.5%. · 2027
One factor may be the increase in the VAT rate on accommodation from 9% to 21% in January 2026, which has made hotel rooms and holiday homes around 11% more expensive than in 2025. · January 2026

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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