CEE & CCA week ahead: Kazakhstan rate decision and Polish GDP

中文标题

中欧、东欧和高加索及中亚地区周度展望：哈萨克斯坦利率决议与波兰GDP

ING THINK08/28/2026updated 10/17/2026

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Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

ING Think's CEE & CCA week ahead report covers key data releases and central bank decisions in Poland, Hungary, Turkey, and Kazakhstan. Poland's 2Q26 GDP is expected to be confirmed at 3.8% YoY, with August inflation edging up to 3.1% YoY. Hungary's GDP growth is forecast at 2.7% YoY, with risks to full-year 3.0% growth from geopolitical tensions. Kazakhstan is expected to cut its base rate by 25bp to 16.50%, conditional on August CPI falling to single digits.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 08/28/2026
Research topic: Inflation · Poland CPI · Monetary policy
Time horizon: short_term

Key arguments

Poland's 2Q26 GDP growth is expected to be confirmed at 3.8% YoY, with private consumption easing and fixed investment accelerating.
Polish August CPI is likely to edge up to 3.1% YoY, with core inflation unchanged and food deflation offsetting fuel price increases.
Hungary's 2Q26 GDP growth is forecast at 2.7% YoY, with industry supportive but services and construction sluggish.
Kazakhstan is expected to cut its base rate by 25bp to 16.50%, conditional on August CPI falling to single digits.
Hungary's full-year GDP growth is projected at 3.0% with geopolitical tensions as a key downside risk.
Polish retail sales in July may surprise on the upside due to the FIFA World Cup effect and falling fuel prices.
Kazakhstan's currency strength is the only disinflationary factor, but other cost pressures may limit the cut.

Key numbers

Poland 2Q26 GDP YoY: 3.8%
Poland August CPI YoY: 3.1%
Hungary 2Q26 GDP YoY: 2.7%
Kazakhstan base rate cut: 25bp to 16.50%
Hungary 2026 GDP growth: 3.0%

Main risks

Geopolitical tensions could weigh on Hungary's full-year GDP growth.
Kazakhstan's rate cut may be postponed if August CPI does not fall to single digits, or accompanied by more cautious guidance.
Polish retail sales may disappoint if the rebound fails to materialize.

Corresponding source evidence

Monday also brings August CPI inflation, which probably inched up to 3.1% YoY from 3.0% YoY in July. · short_term
We expect Kazakhstan to cut its base rate by a cautious 25bp to 16.50% on Friday 4 September, provided August CPI, due on 31 August, falls into single digits from 10.2% YoY in July. · short_term
Following the disappointing retail performance in June, we are expecting a rebound. This will be partly due to the effect of the FIFA World Cup which boosted both food and non-food retail. · short_term

Conditions / invalidation

August CPI falls into single digits from 10.2% YoY in July.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.