Cee cca week ahead inflation data from poland and the czech republic
中文标题
中东欧与CCA地区下周展望：捷克和波兰通胀数据
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Final September CPI releases are due from Poland and the Czech Republic next week, with Polish headline inflation set to be confirmed at 4% YoY while core pressure stays absent and price growth remains concentrated in fuels and related goods. Excise duty and VAT cuts on fuels, extended through end-2026, keep Polish headline CPI within 3.5-4.0% YoY to year-end. Poland's August current account deficit is forecast slightly above €2bn; the Czech deficit likely narrowed on decent exports, while producer prices face energy costs and a weaker koruna.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 10/09/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- 2027 · year-end 2026 · August 2025 · next week
Key arguments
- Poland's final September CPI should confirm headline inflation at 4% YoY, with core inflation easing.
- Polish disinflation is narrow: price growth is concentrated in fuels and closely related goods and services.
- Polish excise duty and VAT cuts on fuels, extended until end-2026, keep headline CPI in a 3.5-4.0% YoY range by year-end.
- Czech producer price inflation likely strengthened on elevated energy prices, rising input costs and a weaker koruna.
Key numbers
- Poland headline CPI (September, YoY)
- 4%
- Poland headline CPI range to end-2026 (YoY)
- 3.5-4.0%
- Poland August current account deficit
- slightly above €2bn
- Poland 12-month rolling current account deficit
- around 1% of GDP
- Polish fuel excise duty and VAT cut extension
- until end-2026
Main risks
- Ongoing energy crisis may trigger a jump in regulated household prices from early 2027 in Poland.
- Persistently elevated global energy prices and a weaker koruna could keep Czech producer price inflation stronger.
- Polish export and import growth moderated to single digits after two months of double-digit expansion, weakening the external backdrop.
Corresponding source evidence
Yet the ongoing energy crisis may trigger a jump in regulated prices for households from the beginning of 2027.
· 2027The short-term inflation outlook has improved with authorities cutting excise duty and VAT on fuels again, this time until the end of 2026.
· year-end 2026As a result, headline CPI should run within the 3.5-4.0% YoY range by the end of the year.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 10/09/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction