Asia week ahead: Indonesia rate decision, data on China, Taiwan, Singapore · THINK Economic and financial analysis
中文标题
亚洲一周展望：印尼利率决议，中国、台湾、新加坡数据 · THINK 经济与金融分析
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
ING expects Bank Indonesia to keep its benchmark rate at 5.75% on Wednesday after a dovish August pause, but still forecasts one final 25bp hike in Q4 as rupiah risks build from broad USD strength, weak external balances and falling FX reserves. China's loan prime rates are seen unchanged Monday, with a cut still supported by weak growth and credit but possibly delayed to next year. Taiwan export orders and industrial production should stay strong; Singapore inflation is set to accelerate.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/18/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Crude Oil (WTI)
- Time horizon
- 2026
Key arguments
- Bank Indonesia is expected to hold at 5.75%, but ING still expects one final 25bp hike in Q4.
- China's LPRs are seen unchanged, with a cut supported by weak growth, low inflation and soft credit, yet possibly deferred to next year.
- Taiwan export orders are expected near 60.9% YoY and industrial production at 29.4% YoY.
- Singapore headline and core inflation should accelerate on higher oil, El Nino food effects and AI-related services demand.
Key numbers
- BI benchmark rate expected
- 5.75%
- Expected final BI hike
- 25bp in Q4
- Taiwan export orders growth
- around 60.9% YoY
- Taiwan industrial production growth
- 29.4% YoY
- China 2026 growth target
- on track (no change)
Main risks
- Rupiah could come under renewed pressure from broad USD strength, weak external balances and declining FX reserves.
- China's rate cut could be pushed into next year if growth stays on track for the 2026 target.
- Higher oil prices and El Nino-related supply disruptions could keep Singapore inflation elevated.
Corresponding source evidence
As such, we continue to expect one final 25bp rate hike in the fourth quarter.
Conditions still support a rate cut before year-end amid slowing growth, low inflation, and weak credit activity.
It’s increasingly possible, though, that the move could be pushed into next year if China remains on track to hit its 2026 growth target.
· 2026
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/18/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction