Housing correction deepens: CommBank economists

中文标题

住房调整加剧：澳洲联邦银行经济学家

Commonwealth Bank09/01/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Commonwealth Bank forecasts a deeper and broader Australian housing downturn, with national dwelling prices expected to fall around 9% from peak to trough. The correction has spread to Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide, with sharper declines in Sydney and Melbourne. A recovery in 2027 is conditional on expected RBA rate cuts.

Institution: Commonwealth Bank
Published: 09/01/2026
Research topic: housing market · Australian housing · Sydney and Melbourne housing
Time horizon: cycle · 2027 · monthly · first half 2027

Key arguments

The housing downturn is faster and broader than expected, with price falls spreading beyond Sydney and Melbourne to previously strong markets.
National dwelling prices fell 0.9% in August, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, now 3.6% below the March peak.
CommBank downgraded its forecast to a peak-to-trough decline of around 9% nationally, with Sydney and Melbourne expected to fall 13% and 12% respectively.
Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide are now expected to fall around 8% from peak to trough, reversing earlier strong growth.
Higher expected interest rates, weaker momentum, and tax policy changes are key drivers of the downgrade.
A recovery in 2027 is conditional on RBA rate cuts in May and August next year; without cuts, prices would be broadly flat.

Key numbers

National peak-to-trough decline forecast: -9%
National prices below peak (August): -3.6%
Sydney peak-to-trough decline forecast: -13%
Melbourne peak-to-trough decline forecast: -12%
Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide peak-to-trough decline forecast: -8%
National price growth forecast for 2027: +2%
RBA cash rate forecast for November: 4.60%

Main risks

If the RBA does not cut rates as expected, national dwelling prices could be broadly flat in 2027.
Housing market momentum could weaken further, leading to even larger price declines.
Unexpected interest rate hikes or persistent high inflation could delay the recovery.
The downturn could deepen in cities that previously had tight supply, amplifying the correction.

Corresponding source evidence

CommBank expects national dwelling prices to fall around 9% from their peak this cycle. · cycle
CommBank now expects peak-to-trough declines of around 13% in Sydney and 12% in Melbourne. · cycle
CommBank now expects prices in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide to fall by around 8% from peak to trough. · cycle

Conditions / invalidation

If the cash rate remained at 4.60% throughout 2027.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.