California's billionaire tax looks set to fail, with Prop 40 trailing in polls

[The Information] California voters will vote next Tuesday on Proposition 40, a ballot measure that would impose a one-time 5% tax on billion-dollar fortunes to fund healthcare and education in the state. A fresh Politico poll found 45% of likely voters in favor, 43% against and 12% undecided, according to The Information, while prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi put the odds of passage at about 23%. A slew of Democratic-aligned groups and trade unions have voiced opposition, including Planned Parenthood, the California Teachers Association and the California Medical Association, and Governor Gavin Newsom has also said he opposes the measure. Building a Better California, the best-funded group opposing Prop 40, has raised $330 million from donors including Sergey Brin, Stripe's Patrick Collison, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, Vinod Khosla and John Doerr. Both supporters and opponents expect lengthy court battles over its constitutionality even if it passes.