Bitcoin rebounded after briefly falling below the $80,000 round-number level last week, and briefly broke above $83,000 in early trading on Monday. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $229 million last week and recorded net inflows of $216.7 million on Monday. Strategy disclosed the purchase of 267 bitcoins in a single day.
[Price] Bitcoin is now at $81,456, down 0.76% in 24 hours; Ethereum is at $2,393.18, down 0.54% in 24 hours (CoinGecko, as of 8 a.m. Beijing time on October 20). Last week's low was $80,112, and spot buying absorbed the break below the $80,000 mark. The range is seen as $80,000–$87,000, with the upper edge at the recent double-top area around $87,300. Bitfinex estimates the average cost basis of ETF holders at about $84,358, and the current price remains underwater. Whether $80,000 holds or is lost is the key level this week.
[Sentiment] The alternative.me Fear & Greed Index is 55 today (Greed), versus 59 previously (Greed), a slight pullback from the upper edge of Greed and not yet into Neutral.
[Fund Flows] Last week (October 12–16, U.S. Eastern Time), spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $229 million, according to SoSoValue data: leader IBIT saw net outflows of $165 million for the week, FBTC saw net outflows of $60,279,700, and MSBT bucked the trend with net inflows of $6,669,900 (PANews report). On Monday (October 19), funds returned, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows of $216.7 million, of which IBIT alone accounted for $205.9 million, about 95% (SoSoValue data). Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $87.7 million on Monday, the 11th consecutive trading day of net inflows. Total net assets of Bitcoin ETFs stand at $104.29 billion, with cumulative historical net inflows of $56.88 billion, accounting for 6.35% of Bitcoin's market capitalization. The month-to-date cumulative figure is pending the weekly update and is currently unavailable.
[Related Assets] Strategy disclosed on October 19 that it purchased 267 bitcoins between October 12 and 18, spending about $22.1 million at an average price of $82,900, bringing total holdings to 848,517 bitcoins, with a total cost of about $64.02 billion (average price $75,446). During the same period, the company repurchased $1.931 million of STRC preferred stock and raised the upper limit of its digital credit securities repurchase authorization from $2 billion to $3 billion, with about $1.16 billion remaining. As of October 18, its U.S. dollar reserve was $4.83 billion and cash was $447.3 million. Last week, MSCI warned that it might classify MSTR as a "non-operating" company and remove it from its indexes; JPMorgan estimated this would trigger $2.8 billion in passive outflows. MSTR closed up 2.7% at $140.53 on Monday. On the same day, Strive disclosed the purchase of 1,223 bitcoins, bringing total holdings to 36,818 bitcoins.
[Assessment] $80,000 held, and ETF funds also returned on Monday. But two underwater signals have not been eliminated: first, the average cost basis of ETF holders at $84,358 remains above the current price, meaning most ETF buyers are underwater; second, Bitfinex points out that leveraged longs have piled up, and a break below $80,000 could trigger cascading liquidations. In terms of fund structure, it is a tug-of-war between "ETF redemptions vs. corporate treasury purchases": increased holdings by Strategy and Strive offset ETF outflows, but corporate purchases are one-sided disclosures with no continuous commitment and are less reliable than daily ETF flows. Leaning: whether $80,000 holds or is lost will set the pace, and only two consecutive days of net ETF inflows would confirm a stabilization signal. Before confirmation, control position size and do not chase Monday's rebound.
[Data Notes] - Prices: CoinGecko spot prices, captured at around 8 a.m. Beijing time on October 20 - Sentiment: alternative.me Fear & Greed Index - ETF fund flows: SoSoValue data (compiled from reports by PANews, Cointelegraph, and BitRss) - Related assets: Strategy's October 19 SEC disclosure (compiled from Quiver Quantitative, TipRanks, and crypto.news) - Funding rates: The Binance interface is region-restricted in this environment and is currently unavailable