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• Japan’s producer prices rose 6.8% year-on-year in September 2026, the weakest since May and below the expected 7.6%, signaling easing but still high inflation.

• Australia’s RBA minutes say it lifted the cash rate to 4.6% two weeks ago as upside inflation risks materialized and delays could be costly, noting the Middle East conflict will heavily shape the outlook and that it stands ready to raise rates further if needed.

• Tomorrow, and the reason the nine-day measure rose: September consumer price data at 14:30 CET, with headline inflation expected at 3.7% against 3.4%, and ASML, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reporting.

• Inflation pressures are proving more persistent in both Canada and the U.S., turning the monetary policy outlook more restrictive.

▪ What to watch out for: Inflation momentum of core goods will broadly be maintained, driven by reimposed tariffs and rising import/energy prices, though deflation of used autos will offset.

▪ Used auto inflation is expected to fall back into negative territory, contributing 0 to -0.1% points to MoM September CPI, consistent with Manheim Used Vehicle Index which leads CPI growth by ~ 2 months.

1 Asia FX Talk │19 October 2026 Asia FX Talk MSCI downgrade risk adds to IDR headwinds 19 October 2026 Market Highlights The dollar softened after Fed Chair Warsh offered no hawkish steer at the IMF meetings, prompting markets to scale back expectations of another rate hike at the 27- 28 October FOMC meeting.

• The dollar weakened on Friday, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.2%, capping its worst week since early September after Chair Warsh's comments were read as favouring a hold.