#751
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Inflation has already surged this year amid the Iran war, therefore El Niño could have compounding effects on economies.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 48
Institutional Wire
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1309 evidence-backed views published in the latest 7 days, newest first with same-topic and same-event views grouped together.
Each line is one claim extracted from one report: what the publisher expects, in which direction, on which asset, over what horizon. How views are extracted · By asset · By topic
#752
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
For instance, inArgentina, this means that annual inflation will be 0.41 percentage points higher due toElNiño.
0.41Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 48
#753
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
1.38 Strong coastal episodes raise headline and core inflation; severe events lift expectations (BIS WP 1276).
1.38Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 48
#754
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
14 October 2026 US Macro Snapshot: September CPI came in hotter than anticipated and broad-based, which will stoke concerns that the lull in price pressures over the summer was just a blip and make the October meeting a "live" one; bearish view on inflation.
14Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 48
English source evidence
14 October 2026 US M ACRO S NAPSHOT September CPI Recap: Hotter print --> Live October Meeting Inflation for September was hotter than anticipated and broad-based, which will stoke concerns that the lull inprice pressures over the summer was just ablip.
#755
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
CPI and PPI are expected by the market to pick up to 1.0%yoy and 4.4%yoy respectively, while export and import growth should remain robust.
1.0%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#756
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The Singapore central bank said in its statement that core inflation is expected to ease discernibly from the middle of next year, with domestic costs to stay subdued and helped by an expected slowing in supply-driven imported inflation.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#757
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
What’s also interesting is that MAS highlighted contained unit labour cost increase in the services sector due to continued productivity gains as one key driver dampening inflation, and this could partly reflect authorities’ concerns around softening of Singapore’s labour market and some higher retrenchments in Singapore’s services sector.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#758
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Overall, Chinese inflation remains relatively under control compared to global peers Source: Shutterstock 5.0% YoY China's September PPI inflation Highest since 2022 Higher than expected CPI inflation edges up overall amid offsetting factors China’s CPI inflation rose 0.9% year-on-year in September, up slightly from 0.8% in August, and broadly in line with forecasts (market: 1.0%, ING: 1.0%).
5.0%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#759
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
This component looks likely to remain a drag on overall inflation, as housing prices have yet to confirm a bottom.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#760
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Overall, inflation remains comfortably below the 2% target set at this year's Two Sessions.
2%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#761
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Energy and tech prices are driving China's reflation PPI inflation hits the highest level since 2022 PPI inflation rose sharply to 5.0% YoY in September, up from 3.8% in August, and comfortably beating forecasts (market: 4.4%, ING: 4.3%).
2022Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#762
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The inflation backdrop doesn’t appear to be as bad as might have been expected when the conflict first started and if an assumption had been made that it would still be impacting energy supplies by the following October.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#763
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
It’s only the third time since the retracement back lower after the global inflation shock that the 3mth annualised core PCE rate has fallen back to target.
3Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#764
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
MAS lowered its 2026 core inflation forecast to 1.5-2.0%, from 1.5-2.5% previously projected at its July policy review, while noting that headline inflation is likely to average around 2%.
2026Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#765
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Enhanced government subsidies for healthcare and education are also expected to keep services inflation subdued in 2027.
2027Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#766
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
While the inflation outlook has improved, we do not believe risks have disappeared.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#767
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Domestic inflation could prove stickier if spillovers from the AI-driven investment cycle become broader-based, boosting demand and pushing unit labour costs higher than currently anticipated.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#768
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
As such, we continue to see the balance of risks to inflation as modestly tilted to the upside.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#769
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The combination of resilient growth, a positive output gap, and lingering upside inflation risks suggests that MAS is likely not done with tightening, and tightening in Jan is likely if the risks to inflation materialise.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#770
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Growth remains robust, with GDP expected to expand by more than 5% in 2H, while core inflation is likely to re-accelerate in 4Q, keeping concerns about underlying price pressures alive.
5%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#771
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Williams said he still expects another hike this year, but there are signs that inflation will slow and he doesn’t see further tightening in 2027.
2027Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#772
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Today, all eyes will be on US inflation data for September.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#773
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
September CPIF inflation didn’t scream a rate hike, headline at 1.5% and core at 0.5%, but the Riksbank has clearly signalled it’s ready to hike in November, and we see a high bar for a rethink.
1.5%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#774
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Francesco Pesole CEE: Gains likely to be short-lived Yesterday’s inflation data from the Czech Republic confirmed a rise in core inflation from 3.0% to 3.1%.
3.0%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#775
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
This dynamic is expected to shift in the coming months as we see a lagged pass-through of global prices into local inflation.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#776
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Headline inflation is expected at 3.6% against 3.4%, core at 2.5% against 2.4%, with the monthly headline rate seen at 0.6%.
3.6%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 67Fresh 44
#777
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Yield curves begin to show relief over 2027 as we forecast a bending of the AI curve and hyperscaler issuance, ongoing pressures from government debt issuance, ebbing inflation risk, cooler US growth and upside risk to our Canadian forecasts for growth and inflation.
2027Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#778
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Macklem’s appearance will disappoint anyone expecting any updated remarks since the hawkish September 2 nd press conference and his September 21 st presser when he sounded hawkish on inflation, dovish on Q4 GDP growth and skipped right over Q3 resilience.
2Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#779
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Canadian core inflation measures were quite warm on September 14 th .Or consider GDP that’s tracking 2% in Q3 after the August 0.2% m/m ‘flash’ estimate last month.
14Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#780
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Macklem won’t reveal the results this week, but he will probably also have in his head the outcome of the latest Q3 business and consumer surveys that will probably follow the CFIB measure of inflation expectations higher.
3Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#781
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Scotiabank Economics' house estimates for US September CPI are 0.6% m/m for total CPI (in line with the 0.6% consensus) and 0.3% m/m for core CPI (above the 0.2% consensus), a slightly hawkish read on core inflation.
8Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
English source evidence
US CPI ––A MERE PLACEHOLDER Scotia’s house estimates for US CPI in September (8:30amET) are 0.6% m/m for total CPI (0.6% consensus) and 0.3% m/m for core CPI (0.2% consensus).
#782
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
In terms of the outlook for inflation, much hinges on what happens with the Strait of Hormuz.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#783
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
In any case, the cooling housing market should translate into softer shelter inflation prints, while a less onerous tariff regime should also help.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#784
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
US Rates Strategy Daily October 14, 2026 Troy Ludtka, US Economics troy.ludtka@smbcnikko-si.com 1 212-224-5483 Key Inflation Headwind Fades September Core CPI surprised to the upside, printing at 0.33% m/m (consensus expectation: 0.2%).
14,Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#785
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Even though the base effects for energy costs will begin in March and tariffs have largely been passed through into prices, the loss of shelter-driven disinflation, at least temporarily, suggests that inflationary pressures are likely to remain elevated in the near-term outlook.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#786
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The results raised the year-over-year rates to 3.7% (3.4% previously) and 2.6% y/y (2.4% prior) for total CPI and core CPI respectively.
3.7%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#787
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Looking ahead, the CBRT is expected to remain cautious despite inflation easing to 29.7% y/y in September, with elevated energy prices and declining reserves likely delaying the resumption of its rate-cutting cycle.
29.7%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#788
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 84.4 points in September after a series of rate hikes by the central bank and remains below the neutral level of 100 ( Australia’s central bank carried out rate hikes in February, March and May in response to the rising inflation rate.
84.4Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#789
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Looking ahead, growth is slowing and inflation remains too high, and it will take time for higher interest rates to bring inflation back into the target range.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 44
#790
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
In Europe, Germany will release its final September CPI figures, while ECB officials Elderson and Lane, along with the B oE’s Dhingra, are scheduled to speak.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38
#791
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The Reserve Bank of Australia believed it could be costly to wait for more evidence that inflation pressures were building before raising interest rates in September, minutes from its latest meeting show.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38
#792
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Inflation remained too high, while the board saw growing evidence that domestic capacity pressures may be greater than previously thought.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38
#793
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
July inflation data was stronger than expected, GDP growth had been slightly stronger, and businesses continued to report widespread cost pressures.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38
#794
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The board said it would continue to do what was necessary to achieve its inflation and employment goals, “including increasing the cash rate target further if required”.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38
#795
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Board discussions were heavily weighted towards inflation and upside risks to the outlook, while giving relatively little attention to downside risks to growth, Allen said.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38
#796
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Allen said the RBA had seen inflation risks grow on three fronts: the escalation of the Middle East conflict and higher commodity prices, demand from the AI data centre build-out and evidence that domestic capacity pressures may be greater than previously thought.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38
#797
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The board’s assessment that July’s inflation surprise was more likely to reflect domestic capacity pressures than stronger-than-expected pass-through from the Middle East conflict was “a clear signal that the board is still worried about domestically driven inflation pressure”, Allen said.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38
#798
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The board also believed waiting for more confirmation could be costly, because inflation had already been above target for an extended period, the minutes revealed.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38
#799
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
The Board was also concerned that medium-term inflation expectations among businesses could be starting to rise.
Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 84Fresh 38
#800
AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation
Japan's producer prices rose 6.8% year-on-year in September 2026, the weakest since May and below the expected 7.6%, signaling easing but still high inflation, a neutral view on inflation.
6.8%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 18 inst.Authority 67Fresh 38
English source evidence
• Japan’s producer prices rose 6.8% year-on-year in September 2026, the weakest since May and below the expected 7.6%, signaling easing but still high inflation.
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