UBS CIO — forecast accuracy

Every forecast below was published publicly by UBS CIO with a stated target and date. Tlines records the first same-source observation on or after the target date, marks the call settled, and does not adjust the record afterwards. Calls that could not be settled are counted as excluded above rather than dropped silently. Settlement method · Dispute a record

39 rate and macro calls are excluded from this score. "Bullish on 10Y Treasuries" means yields fall, and a policy or inflation stance has no price to settle against, so scoring them against the available series would invert the verdict rather than measure it.

Method: first same-source observation on/after target date, with a matching observation on/before forecast date; maximum gap is configurable and defaults to 7 days.