每周经济评论 · 经济在 Q2, 录得温和增长，Q3 开局表现不一

关键论点

• 二季度GDP增长0.2%，高于新西兰联储9月货币政策声明中的零增长预测；前季上修使GDP水平较联储估计高约0.5%。
• 年度GDP增长2.6%超过新西兰联储1.6%的潜在增长估计，表明产出缺口一直在缓慢收窄。
• 实际工资增长乏力与房价下跌抵消了初级产业收入，8月零售支出下降0.9%。
• 西太平洋银行预计年底NZD/USD回升至0.5900，2-10年期互换曲线趋平至约60个基点。

对应原文证据

1. As it turns out, the preferred production-based measure of GDP grew 0.2% during the quarter, in line with our more recent expectations (revised higher after the final partial indicators were released).
2. Combined with modest upward revisions to the previous quarter – mostly due to stronger construction activity – the level of GDP in the June quarter was about 0.5% higher than RBNZ estimated.
3. Typically, a portion of this difference will flow through to the RBNZ’s estimate of the output gap, which was thought to be -1.5% of GDP as of the September MPS.