利率预测：战术性调整至9月

关键论点

• 西太平洋银行将澳储行下一次加息预期从11月提前至9月。
• 行长布洛克称通胀上行风险似在成为现实，这满足了8月设定的进一步加息条件。
• 近期澳储行沟通明显升级，显示内部有在9月行动紧迫感。
• 预计投票将出现分歧，成员对趋势供给能力、生产率与劳动力供给看法不同，且近期就业不足明显上升。

对应原文证据

1. In particular, Governor Bullock today flagged that upside risks to inflation appeared to be materialising.
2. • There were tactical reasons to favour November over September, including that the August CPI will be released the next day and might not align with the hawkish message of the July outcome.
3. • As we highlighted in our note of 8 September, though, “if the internal members felt the situation was more urgent and wanted to get the hike done in September, we believe they could muster a majority of Monetary Policy Board (MPB) votes in favour.” Recent rhetoric shows that they will try.