预测更新：增长走强，现金利率上调

关键论点

• 数据流和叙事转变，11月加息概率升至50%以上，成为基准情景。
• 家庭部门韧性和数据中心投资热潮提振内需和GDP增长，但限制通胀放缓。
• 澳洲联储领导层可能倾向于11月而非9月加息，以避免对噪音月度数据过度反应，但9月加息不能排除。
• 内需预测上调，但GDP影响被进口密集型支出部分抵消；预计2026年GDP增速低谷在1.5%左右。
• 预计从2027年8月开始降息三次（每次25个基点），路径上调25个基点；2028年底截尾均值通胀低于目标中点。
• 风险包括2028年底/2029年通胀可能低于目标，以及数据中心投资增加成本压力。
• 住房市场弱于预期，但科技投资抵消了对消费支出的影响。

对应原文证据

1. National accounts and internal data have pointed to stronger household incomes in Q2 and onwards, which means spending will be more resilient over the near term even with sentiment stuck at historically weak levels. · near-term
2. An unprecedented pipeline of investment in data centres and associated renewable electricity generation and distribution is expected to drive business investment and so GDP growth – but also limit the pace of disinflation.
3. On balance, we do not think a September hike this is the most likely outcome and expect the MPB to prefer to wait for the full quarterly inflation data and revised forecasts to confirm the need for a rate increase.