财政动态：各州开始领教复利的法则

关键论点

• 全球债券抛售和收益率上升将在四年内使各州利息成本增加约35亿澳元，合并州现金状况较已公布预算恶化135亿澳元。
• 住房市场下滑更快更广，FY2027印花税收入减少约80至90亿澳元；劳动力市场逐步放缓也令工资税收入增长减慢。
• NDIS改革将资金和交付责任转移给各州（从Thriving Kids开始），支出风险偏向上行，预算结果偏向下行。
• 经济走强、数据中心和可再生能源投资以及GST收入改善提供部分抵消，但GST分配复杂，可能需要联邦额外补助。

对应原文证据

1. Higher bond yields are expected to add around $3.5bn to state interest costs over the next four years, while weaker housing activity is expected to reduce revenue by around $8-9 billion in FY2027 alone (some of which is already factored in to state budgets).
2. Stronger consumption and a slightly more resilient labour market are expected to provide a partial offset of around $1.5bn over the next four years.
3. The deterioration in the combined state fiscal position of $13.5bn over the next four years will delay the expected recovery in state finances.