初步看法：新西兰建筑许可，2026年7月

关键论点

• 住宅许可数量7月环比下滑4.3%，但水平仍处于高位。
• 12个月住宅许可数量上升20.7%，为三年最高，新建住宅接近41,000套。
• 地区增长强劲：奥克兰过去一年上升20%，坎特伯雷上升33%。
• 西太平洋银行预计许可增加将推动住宅建设活动在2026年末及2027年增长。
• 阻力因素：自5月以来审批量趋于平稳、建筑成本和利率上升、房市疲软、人口增长低迷以及住房供应增加。
• 非住宅活动持续疲软，尽管工业/仓储空间有韧性，但办公和零售空间开发减少。
• 西太平洋银行预计即将发布的建筑工作调查将显示6月季度非住宅建筑活动再次下滑。
• 由于经济状况疲软，开发商和租户可能对近期的大额资本支出保持谨慎。

对应原文证据

1. Looking across the country, the lift in planned building work continues to be heavily centred on Auckland (where consent numbers are up 20% over the past year) and Canterbury (up 33%). · past year
2. However, we remain cautious about how far building activity will rise and how enduring the upswing will be. While consent levels are elevated, the number of new projects being approved each month has been flattening off since May. In addition, we’re hearing increasing concerns about increasing build costs and rising interest rates, along with continued softness in the housing market. We’re also seen continued low levels of population growth, and a large increase in the number of available homes over the past few years. That combination of factors signals some increasing headwinds for the residential construction sector over the coming year. · coming year
3. While the amount of industrial / storage space in the works has been more resilient, the amount of new office space in development has been easing back and retail space in development remains low. · current trend