澳大利亚GDP：预览简报

关键论点

• 尽管面临高利率和中东冲突的阻力，经济比担心的更有韧性，西太平洋银行-Now显示活动在季内走强。
• 2026年上半年国内需求保持高于趋势的速度，但很大部分流向高进口含量活动，拖累净出口。
• 数据中心和可再生能源投资激增不稳定，大型项目时点导致季度间波动，部分波及GDP总量。
• 第二季度生产率增长可能环比下降0.2%，鉴于暂时能源供应冲击和投资热潮初期典型的生产率拖累，这并不令人意外。

对应原文证据

1. Domestic demand growth is holding at an above above-trend pace over the first half of 2026, with a large share flowing into activities with high import content (including the purchase of EVs, data centre equipment and aircraft) resulting in a drag from net exports. · H1 2026
2. As we have previously noted, the data centre and renewables investment surge is unlikely to be smooth, with the timing of large projects generating significant quarter-to-quarter volatility. · 2026
3. And, as in Q1, the moderation in wages growth we saw in the Q2 WPI is likely to limit any associated increase in the economy’s cost base. · Q2 2026