《澳大利亚与新西兰周报》

关键论点

• 下一次澳央行加息现预计在9月而非11月；近期表态显示内部成员将尝试凑足货币政策委员会多数票。
• 对降息起点（目前预计2027年8月）未作调整，但若后续加息进入基准情形，则需重新评估。
• 独立于政府和央行政策的强劲企业投资，填补了公共需求增长放缓的缺口，改写了增长叙事。
• 企业投资和企业信贷增长与利率仅存在松散关联，因此对更广泛金融状况的指示作用有限。

对应原文证据

1. The global structure of interest rates is likely to be higher now and into the future, because of the AI boom, the US fiscal situation and the end of the post-GFC inflation undershoot.
2. Even a return to inflation around or above target, rather than consistently below as in the 2010s, means that average nominal credit growth rates from that period are not representative of “normal”.
3. This framing is even more curious, when one considers that the RBA never took any signal from the USD selloff earlier in the year.