农业快讯

关键论点

• 农场牛奶价格预测上调25新西兰分至9.75新西兰元/公斤，因蛋白质需求强劲；厄尔尼诺上行风险尚未反映在GDT拍卖价格中。
• 牛肉出口价格将保持高位，因瘦肉修剪价格逆转近期跌势；优质牛肉受美国牛群数量紧张支撑。
• 羊肉价格接近历史高位，但预计到2027年因澳大利亚出口增加和需求增长放缓而温和回落。
• 猕猴桃和苹果出口价格处于历史高位，但产能追赶和作物增产限制进一步涨幅；原木价格稳定至略强。

对应原文证据

1. • Risks are exacerbated by the impact of a now confirmed super-sized El Niño, which could slice off up to 1ppt of New Zealand’s GDP should on-farm production of both milk and meat contract significantly.
2. • We have revised up our farmgate milk price forecast for this season by 25c to $9.75/kg, with milk powder prices holding up better than we expected.
3. • Kiwifruit and apple export prices are expected to remain elevated, supported by strong demand for premium varieties, although increasing supply is likely to keep prices largely flat rather than drive further gains.