不断变化的投资叙事需要仔细的读者

关键论点

• 企业投资如今是自主增长驱动力，而非仅由消费需求驱动。
• 企业投资与企业信贷增长同利率仅弱相关，故信贷难以衡量金融状况。
• 数据中心与可再生能源热潮正在改写澳大利亚增长叙事，预测修正已反映这一点。
• 全球金融危机后低增长、低通胀、低利率时期属于异常；未来全球利率结构可能更高。

对应原文证据

1. The global structure of interest rates is likely to be higher now and into the future, because of the AI boom, the US fiscal situation and the end of the post-GFC inflation undershoot.
2. Even a return to inflation around or above target, rather than consistently below as in the 2010s, means that average nominal credit growth rates from that period are not representative of “normal”.
3. This framing is even more curious, when one considers that the RBA never took any signal from the USD selloff earlier in the year.