9月FOMC：鸽派投降

在9月2026会议上，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将联邦基金利率目标区间上调至3.75%–4.0%，为三年多来首次加息。主席沃什一如既往，几乎没有就美联储的下一步行动提供前瞻指引，但更新后的经济预测摘要（SEP）显示，中位数参与者预计今年还将加息一次。SEP还显示，对经济增长和劳动力市场的预测更为强劲，同时通胀预期也更高。

沃什继续强调，政策利率只是衡量货币政策约束的一项指标。自7月会议以来，美国较长期国债收益率上升尚未传导至金融条件收紧，不过这有可能减少通过联邦基金利率所需的额外紧缩幅度。沃什主席指出，在本次会议前，他“很难”将金融条件描述为限制性，而今天的行动是移除“一剂”政策宽松。因此，市场收益率上升为美联储分担了多少工作，可能影响进一步加息的步伐和幅度。

通胀仍高于美联储的目标，支持政策制定者决定重启加息，既为压低通胀，也为强化美联储抗击通胀的可信度。持续中的伊朗冲突带来额外的上行风险。冲突持续时间越长，能源价格维持高位以及更高的投入和运输成本传导至更广泛商品和服务的可能性就越大。尽管较长期通胀预期仍相对受控，但持续的性能源冲击可能对近期预期构成上行压力，并减缓美联储实现2%目标的进展。最新的核心PCE数据（7月环比0.25%）更接近一些鸽派政策制定者可能认为可接受的速度，但迄今进展有限，加大了委员会希望政策利率更具限制性的风险。

企业也报告称，转嫁更高成本的能力增强，尤其是在服务行业。结合劳动力市场状况趋紧，这可能推动工资增长更坚挺、通胀更持久。一个重要的抵消因素是，AI驱动的生产率提升和自动化有可能扩大产能并缓和单位劳动力成本。沃什似乎正指望这些收益帮助通胀回落至目标水平，同时支持更强劲的增长。关键不确定性在于时机：AI的生产率收益可能需要时间才能实现，使美联储不得不应对更迫在眉睫的通胀压力。

在通胀持续、财政政策扩张、大量发行以及政策利率将维持高位的预期下，美国国债收益率大幅上升——这些压力在其他发达市场也显而易见。尽管此轮走势主要由更高的政策利率预期驱动，但如果投资者对美联储将通胀拉回目标的承诺信心下降，或对美国财政轨迹更加担忧，这种情况可能改变——届时我们可能看到10年期和30年期收益率继续走高。

在此背景下，财政部可能进一步扩大其回购计划，就像上个月那样，为较长期证券提供额外需求，并可能部分抵消长期收益率的上行压力。尽管回购可能缓解近期市场压力，但它们主要是改善市场运作的工具，而非解决更广泛财政挑战的手段。这也与货币政策存在潜在张力：如果长期收益率上升正在替美联储完成部分工作，那么压低这些收益率的努力可能部分抵消这种约束。此外，被视为试图遏制借贷成本的努力可能引发对大规模财政赤字容忍度的担忧，从而可能对通胀预期和期限溢价构成上行压力。

Investors also focused on the Fed’s Balance Sheet Policy Task Force, which is reviewing the long-term framework for managing its assets and liabilities. Early indications suggest the group is exploring ways to operate with a smaller balance sheet while potentially also improving coordination among monetary policy, Treasury cash management, and bank regulation. We expect these outcomes to include renewed balance-sheet runoff, further reductions in mortgage-backed securities holdings, and a portfolio increasingly concentrated in US Treasury securities.

Any changes are likely to be gradual but could have important implications for rates markets. A smaller Fed footprint could leave private investors to absorb more Treasury duration, potentially putting upward pressure on term premia and longer-term yields. The ultimate impact will depend on the pace and composition of balance-sheet reduction and how those changes interact with Treasury issuance and investor demand.

The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional or accredited investors only.

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