月度现金回顾 – 欧元

关键论点

• 欧洲央行9月10日将三大政策利率各上调25个基点，存款利率升至2.50%，并暗示通胀可能更长时间高于目标。
• 增长走强（综合PMI为53.1）使欧洲央行有更大空间对抗通胀持续性，尽管核心通胀回落至2.4%。
• 欧元货币市场定价继续政策风险：€STR、Euribor及互换利率上升，3个月Euribor达到2.62%。
• 主权债收益率大幅上升（2年期德债收益率上升35个基点至3.26%），法国OAT与德债利差扩大至约111个基点，提高了久期成本。

对应原文证据

1. On September 10, the Governing Council unanimously raised all three policy rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, effective September 16.
2. The increase itself was fully expected; the more important message was that inflation was likely to remain above target for longer and that stronger growth gave policymakers less reason to tolerate that risk.
3. The ECB remains focused on the inflation outlook, underlying inflation and monetary-policy transmission, but it is placing greater weight on the duration and propagation of the energy shock.