拉美周报：尽管面临逆风，秘鲁经济稳健增长，巴西经济表现疲软全球经济

关键论点

• 秘鲁经济保持稳健，8月预计同比增长3.3%，受国内需求推动，但受厄尔尼诺现象抑制。
• 巴西增长低迷，经济活动预计维持在1%左右的同比增速，服务业减速持续。
• 巴西资产因博索纳罗选举胜率上升而大幅上涨，雷亚尔自上周五以来升值近5%，Bovespa指数上涨超8%。
• 巴西央行预计在2026年底前维持利率不变，但上次会议纪要显示基调更偏鸽派。

对应原文证据

1. • August economic activity figures will likely continue to show sluggish growth in Brazil in the low- 1s, while Peru’s economy is estimated to have expanded by 3.3% y/y, in line with our full year forecast of 3.2%.
2. Chart of the Week 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Flavio Bolsonaro (LHS) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (LHS) Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index (RHS) Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg, Polymarket.
3. Brazil’s yield curve also shifted well lower (e.g. -150bps+ in 10s) with traders taking higher odds of a Bolsonaro presidency as one that reduces the risk premium embedded in Brazilian debt and one that curbs fiscal support (and therefore inflation).