英国央行按兵不动但倾向加息，全面改革量化紧缩全球经济

关键论点

• 整体基调偏鹰：包括行长贝利在内的四位维持派委员指出，中东冲突持续越久，二轮价格效应推升紧缩必要性的可能性越大，但此类效应迄今尚未显现。
• 丰业银行基准情形为11月加息25个基点、2027年一季度再加一次，前提是能源价格与冲突前景无明显改善；鉴于国内需求与劳动力市场疲弱，连续加息被视为不太可能。
• 缩表方案调整——暂停所有出售至4月并终止长债出售、200亿英镑出售不进入公开市场——带动收益率曲线大涨，30年期下行12个基点、10年期下行7个基点。
• 市场定价年底前约40个基点、2027年中前约100个基点的加息；央行纪要显示委员对金融条件收紧能否替代上调银行利率存在分歧。

对应原文证据

1. • If energy prices and the outlook for the conflict in the Middle East do not improve significantly by the time of the November meeting, we think the BoE will hike by 25bps, followed by another rate increase in Q1 -27, with permutations of back -to- back or more hikes dependent on how risks evolve over the next few months.
2. • The BoE also announced a change to its gilts holdings plans, outlining a multi -year balance sheet runoff plan that includes pausing all bond sales until April and ending long -dated bond sales altogether which fed a strong rally in long -end U.K. rates.
3. The Bank of England (BoE) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% this morning, as universally expected by economists polled by Bloomberg and only minimal rate hike pricing in markets of around 3bps (10 –15% chance).