墨西哥央行会议纪要意外偏鸽 · 全球经济研究

关键论点

• 墨西哥央行一致维持政策利率于6.50%，认为货币政策仍具限制性，以支持通胀向目标收敛。
• 五名委员中有三人认为11月5日具备降息条件，但多位委员强调决策须依赖数据。
• 委员会表示愿意与更趋限制性的美联储脱钩，后者目标区间为3.75%-4.00%。
• 服务通胀仍具粘性，为4.33%，且地缘政治与贸易政策不确定性带来上行风险。

对应原文证据

1. • The Mexican economy expanded in the second quarter of 2026, although growth is expected to moderate in the third quarter. · 2026
2. • Headline inflation rose to 3.42% y/y in the first half of September, remaining within the target’s variability interval; however, services inflation remains under pressure.
3. • Three members consider there is room for a rate cut at the next monetary policy meeting on November 5 th , although the decision will remain data dependent.