火上浇油：柴油价格如何通过供应链推升通胀全球经济

关键论点

• 柴油价格涨幅远超原油变动通常隐含的水平，反映中东运输受阻与俄罗斯炼油产能损失。
• 年初以来，原油与柴油价差的相关性由历史负值转为强正值。
• 柴油特异性冲击传导超出能源范畴，核心通胀及食品、住房等分项在12至18个月后作出反应。
• 央行可忽略暂时的相对价格冲击，但持续的柴油冲击可能引发更广泛的通胀和更强的政策回应。

对应原文证据

1. A longer-lasting shock would increase the risk of broader inflation pressure and a stronger monetary policy response.
2. This is what we would normally expect, since crude oil is only one input in diesel production.
3. Specifically, we estimate the impact of this extra layer of pressure by isolating diesel-specific price movements —those not explained by crude oil—and tracing their effects through consumer and producer prices.