SARI评论：锁定它，埃迪

关键论点

• 7月CPI显示截尾均值通胀同比3.6%粘性，六个月年化率为3.9%，市场服务通胀创历史新高4.4%。
• 7月家庭支出环比增长1.1%，名义年增长率达7.0%，削弱了需求破坏的观点。
• 8月会议纪要显示对预防性加息的积极辩论，并包含上行风险条件性措辞，数据已满足该条件。
• CPI后市场对9月加息概率从17%升至36%，多家银行将预期调至9月。
• 施罗德预期9月加息，并已削减澳元久期和外汇敞口。

对应原文证据

1. We do not currently hold US IG exposure, but it is getting more interesting; it has underperformed year-to-date and is an asset class in which we are looking to incrementally increase exposure, particularly in short-duration IG, while selectively targeting sectors that are less vulnerable to spread pressure, including financials and sectors with lower capital expenditure requirements. · Incremental over time
2. US securitised remains attractive, with US recession risk very low, a robust consumer and attractive spreads. · Ongoing
3. Too big a delay runs the risk of inflation becoming embedded leading to larger action down the track and then dislocation in the economy. · Medium-term