市场速览 - 霍尔木兹海峡危机引发原油价格新一轮飙升，风险情绪受挫 - 2026年9月28日

关键论点

• 特朗普拒绝伊朗霍尔木兹海峡提议，加大供应中断持续的可能性，支撑油价。
• 油价与债券收益率上升加剧利率更高更久的担忧，打压风险资产。
• 随着利率上升，美国企业信用最弱端的再融资风险上升，压力显现。
• 亚洲股市，尤其是韩国和中国科技股，受油价与收益率飙升冲击最大。

对应原文证据

1. • The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading rose slightly to 48.1 in September but stayed very weak, with personal finance views deteriorating and price and fuel worries increasing; year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.6% and the five-year measure to 3.4%.
2. US durable goods orders were flat at USD 338.6 billion in August against expectations for a 0.4% decline, with orders excluding transportation up 0.3% and core capital goods up 1.6%.
3. • The week ahead is heavy: the New York Fed's John Williams speaks today, the Reserve Bank of Australia decides on Tuesday, August PCE and the third estimate of second-quarter GDP land on Wednesday, ISM manufacturing on Thursday and the September employment report on Friday 2 October.