随着财政担忧重塑投资者需求，黄金与实际收益率脱钩

关键论点

• 美国10年期实际收益率触及2.63%的20年高位，年内上升76个基点，但黄金ETF持仓在2026年上半年下降后正在回升。
• 2022-23年，实际收益率上升引发西方ETF减持，而金价因央行购买保持坚挺；如今金价和ETF持仓均显示出与实际收益率脱钩的迹象。
• 传统的黄金机会成本论点正受到财政可持续性担忧、债务负担上升和金融稳定忧虑的挑战。
• 与2022-23年相比，更广泛的投资者基础——央行、回归的西方ETF买家及强劲的亚洲需求——正在支撑黄金。

对应原文证据

1. In simple terms, the real yield is the return an investor expects to earn from a bond after accounting for inflation.
2. Back in 2022–23, when central banks aggressively raised interest rates and real yields surged, investors - primarily in the West - responded by cutting their exposure to gold through ETFs. · 2022
3. Investors may increasingly view higher long-term yields not simply as an attractive alternative to gold, but also as a potential warning signal about fiscal risk, rising debt-servicing costs and financial stability. · long-term