商品周报：宏观压力遇上供应紧张

关键论点

• 美国国债收益率飙升和美元走强带来的宏观逆风打压了贵金属，但实物供应紧张支撑了工业金属、能源和农产品。
• 尽管宏观环境不利，黄金跌幅温和，表明潜在需求依然稳固，ETF持仓连续第十周上升。
• 石油仍处于流动改善与持续中断之间，即期布伦特原油较期货溢价近20美元，反映物流压力。
• 铜的韧性反映了中国库存紧张、洋山溢价高企和供应增长受限，抵消了宏观压力。

对应原文证据

1. • Macro headwinds intensified, with surging US bond yields and a stronger dollar putting pressure on commodities, particularly precious metals.
2. Agriculture was mixed, and energy weakened modestly with energy and fuel price softness being offset by strength in natural gas.
3. Rising yields and a stronger dollar represent obvious headwinds for investment demand and economic activity, but tight inventories, disrupted supply chains and geopolitical uncertainty continue to support commodities where physical availability remains constrained.