每周宏观观点（2026年10月12日）

关键论点

• 人工智能投资推动全球贸易前景走强但不均衡，FOMC会议纪要显示美联储仍保留进一步加息可能。
• 美元大概率保持良好支撑但突破门槛较高；法国财政担忧使欧元上行空间受限。
• 印尼9月整体CPI同比升至3.3%，受食品和交通推动；厄尔尼诺、燃油价格及核心通胀黏性使2026年均值预测风险偏向上行。
• 菲律宾通胀同比飙升至7.2%，使华侨银行2026年5.8%的预测维持在6%以上，并支持菲律宾央行到2026年底前两次加息25个基点。

对应原文证据

1. The WTO now expects merchandise trade volume to grow by 3.9% in 2026, twice its March forecast of 1.9%, before strengthening to 4.1% in 2027. · 2026
2. The Middle East conflict and higher fuel costs are weighing on transport, travel and other traditional services, prompting the WTO to lower its 2026 commercial services trade growth forecast to 3.3%. · 2026
3. IMF has reported estimates that a prolonged shock could reduce global growth by 1.3 percentage points, raise inflation by up to 2%, weaken current accounts by 1.4% of GDP in the euro area and 0.5% in China, while improving oil exporters’ balances by over 6%.