华侨银行每日国债展望（2026年9月14日）

关键论点

• 核心CPI超预期且油价上涨，使美联储加息25个基点的可能性仍在，市场隐含概率高于85%。
• 美联储是一次加息后停止还是暗示第二次，是利率与风险资产的关键问题。
• 能源成本上升且密歇根大学通胀预期达4.6%，在FOMC前加剧了通胀争论。
• 新加坡8月非石油国内出口预计同比增长34.7%，提供电子需求线索。

对应原文证据

1. Market Watch :Asian markets are likely to open with a careful tone today, awaiting the trifecta of central bank meetings starting with the FOMC decision on Wednesday, followed by BOE and BOJ.
2. Fed chair Kevin Warsh may find himself cornered into a 25bp hike to 3.75-4% else risk disappointing markets after his hawkish rhetoric previously, but whether this is a one hike and done or with a potential second rate on the horizon will be key.
3. The BoE is likely static but with 3 dissenters already at the July MPC, the key is how divided will the vote be, as well as the annual announcement on the pace of bond holding unwind.