OCBC 每日信用快照 2026年9月30日

关键论点

• 美国信心与JOLTS数据疲弱，加上威廉姆斯的表态，使下次会议加息概率降至约50%，并将2年期收益率压低5-6个基点。
• 澳洲联储加息25个基点至4.60%，并维持紧缩倾向，称仅靠活动放缓可能不足以使通胀回到目标。
• 信用利差扩大，亚洲高收益债(+11个基点至341个基点)和美国高收益债(+6个基点至309个基点)领涨，美国投资级债持平于82个基点。
• 裕信银行准备最早于明年1月取得德国商业银行控制权，可能成为全球金融危机以来欧洲最大银行并购。

对应原文证据

1. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its lowest reading in over a decade, with both current conditions and expectations deteriorating.
2. Two-year yields fell around 5-6bp, while markets reduced the probability of another Fed hike at the next meeting from around 70% to near 50%.
3. Elsewhere, the RBA raised its cash rate by 25bp to 4.60%, citing stronger-than-expected growth, persistent inflation and the broader pass- through of higher energy costs.