OCBC 每日信贷快照 2026年9月14日

关键论点

• 核心CPI环比上升0.3%，使市场对美联储加息25个基点的隐含概率升至85%以上，周三FOMC会议前不确定性高企。
• 布伦特原油因中东供应中断周涨9.9%至106.60美元，令美联储通胀前景更为复杂。
• 日本央行预计加息25个基点至1.25%，为1995年以来最高水平，日元对后续指引高度敏感。
• 中国8月工业增加值、零售销售等经济数据是亚洲市场的核心焦点。

对应原文证据

1. Asian markets are likely to open with a careful tone today, awaiting the trifecta of central bank meetings starting with the FOMC decision on Wednesday, followed by BOE and BOJ.
2. Fed chair Kevin Warsh may find himself cornered into a 25bp hike to 3.75-4% else risk disappointing markets after his hawkish rhetoric previously, but whether this is a one hike and done or with a potential second rate on the horizon will be key.
3. The BoE is likely static but with 3 dissenters already at the July MPC, the key is how divided will the vote be, as well as the annual announcement on the pace of bond holding unwind.