澳洲联储监测：国内通胀强劲且储备银行官员措辞偏鹰派，导致9月加息25个基点

关键论点

• 第二季度GDP环比增速从+0.3%加快至+0.4%，表明产能短缺大于澳储行预期，通胀更具粘性。
• 7月CPI意外上行；截尾均值同比持平于+3.6%，使通胀在更长时间内远高于2-3%目标区间。
• 澳储行官员9月基调转鹰：Hunter称通胀风险偏向上行且国内因素令人担忧；Hauser称民众对通胀愤怒，支持压低通胀。
• Natixis现预计9月29日加息25个基点至4.60%，若第三季度CPI未放缓，11月存在额外加息风险。

对应原文证据

1. These results suggest that capacity shortage could be larger than the RBA had expected, implying inflation would be sticker than their views.
2. In fact, the CPI in July surprised on the upside, increasing the risk that inflation would remain well above the 2-3% target range for longer than the RBA ’s view .
3. The trimmed mean was flat at +3.6% YoY in July from June (Chart 2).Hence, with the economy holding up better than expected, more rate hikes could be needed to stabilize inflation.