中东周度追踪——外交持续，军事打击再现

关键论点

• 在军事袭击再度出现的背景下，外交仍然开放，但尚未达成最终的霍尔木兹或美伊协议。
• 再度爆发的冲突重新推高了油价中的霍尔木兹风险溢价。
• GCC CDS基本稳定，巴林压力最大。
• GCC股市涨跌互现，科威特和阿曼上涨，而阿布扎比、沙特和巴林下跌。
• 外资流出有所缓和，但投资者情绪仍然谨慎。
• 霍尔木兹海峡交通仍严重受限，航班未达正常水平。

对应原文证据

1. GCC CDS were broadly stable over the week, with only small moves across markets. Bahrain remains the most stressed. · 1 week
2. GCC equities were mixed. Kuwait and Oman rose, Oman as the corridor counterparty and the main bypass route, while Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain fell on direct attack risk and thinner fiscal cover. · 1 week
3. Dubai and Doha flights also remain below schedule. · current