德国：九月大选升温

关键论点

• AfD预计在萨克森-安哈尔特和梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞赢得最多选票，可能首次领导州政府。
• 联邦执政联盟在联邦议院保持控制权，立法能力不受影响，因此通过预算和实施财政计划的能力得以维持。
• 地区选举不太可能引发联邦政府倒台或领导权挑战，尽管会有政治挫折。
• 由于萨克森-安哈尔特（占德国GDP的1.8%）和梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞（占德国GDP的1.4%）的经济规模较小，这些选举的经济影响可忽略不计。

对应原文证据

1. As the federal coalition and the Greens will retain domestic parliamentary control regardless of these regional outcomes, the government’s legislative capacity will remain unaffected. · short-term
2. While 2026 will undoubtedly bring setback after setback for the federal coalition partners, the regional elections are unlikely to trigger either the collapse of the federal government or a leadership challenge. · 2026
3. Consequently, the ability to pass upcoming budgets and implement Germany’ fiscal plan is likely to remain intact, provided the political will persists. · 2026-2027