欧洲央行9月预览：又一次先发制人的加息

营销传播：本文件为营销演示文稿。其编写未遵循旨在促进投资研究独立性的法律要求；且不受投资研究发布前禁止交易的任何限制。

研究

3 年 9 月 2026 日

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欧洲央行 9 月预览：又一次先发制人的加息

下周四（9 月 10 日），欧洲央行管理委员会将召开会议决定适当的货币政策立场。我们预期欧洲央行将把其三大关键利率——边际放贷便利利率、主要再融资操作利率和存款便利利率——分别上调 25 basis points 个基点，至 2.90%、2.65% 和 2.50%。我们还预期拉加德行长将就未来可能的利率路径采取相当中性的语气，以保留近期内的所有可选性，从而避免引发对长期加息周期的预期，强化欧洲央行依赖数据、逐次会议决策的政策方针。

欧洲央行 7 月货币政策会议纪要显示，管理委员会的政策立场仍高度受中东紧张局势影响。在强调欧洲央行“中期导向”的同时，委员们指出了两个关键风险：第一，短期通胀预期可能通过更强的工资需求引发第二轮效应；第二，中东冲突再起推动能源价格回升，表明近期积极的通胀数据可能只是短暂的。有趣的是，政策制定者还就先发制人加息与避免不必要波动之间的利弊进行了辩论，指出过早加息存在随后政策逆转的风险。

Beyond September, we expect apolicy pause until the end of 2027, underpinned by three main factors despite acomplex economic equilibrium. First, a resolution of the Middle East conflicts by early January should ease energy prices. Second, softening labour market conditions by then will limit the risk of second-round effects. Third, the projected appreciation of the euro will further dampen both headline and core inflation. Nonetheless, this scenario carries a hawkish bias, highly conditional on energy price developments. WRITTEN BY

Alain DURRE ,PhD Tel. +33 158 55 60 49 alain.durre@natixis.com

Discover more of our research…

…on research.natixis.com

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2 Mixed signals from hard and soft data since July

Looking for second-round effects

According to preliminary estimates, the euro area annual headline inflation recorded 3.26% yoy in August, with amonthly change of 0.45% from July (Chart 1),slightly higher than our expectations. By contrast, core inflation printed below our expectations at 2.41% yoy, with amonthly change of 0.22%. Services contributed the most to year-on-year headline inflation with 1.43 pp (3.05% yoy, 0.06% mom), followed by energy at 1.30 pp (14.26% yoy, 2.89% mom), food, alcohol, and tobacco at 0.22 pp (1.16% yoy, 0.00% mom), and NEIG at 0.31 pp (1.24% yoy, 0.56% mom). The price expectations from the PMIs showed softening of both input and output prices (Chart 2).

Chart 1:Decomposition ofeuro area headline inflation Chart 2:Input and output prices inthe euro area Composite PMI

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Goods Services Unprocessed food Processed food Energy Total 40 50 60 70 80 90

40 50 60 70 80 90

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Input prices (index) Output prices (index)

Source: Eurostat, LSEG, Natixis CIB Research Source: S&P Global, LSEG, Natixis CIB Research

The question thus arises as to whether these above-target inflation metrics (including rising indirect prices such as prices for diesel, fertilizers, transportation and electric material) could eventually lead to second-round effects as itoccurred in 2022. In this regard, we continue to observe moderate wage growth (Chart 3).In addition, firms continue to point to demand as the main barrier to increase production, despite the resilient activity thanks to exports (Chart 4).

EMEA MACRO SNAPSHOT

3 Chart 3:Labour and wage growth (Y/Y) conditions inthe euro area Chart 4:Survey on factors limiting production inthe Euro area Industry (% ofrespondents)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Services inflation ECB wage tracker Negotiated wages 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Equipment Demand

Labour

Source: Eurostat, ECB, LSEG, Natixis CIB Research Source: Eurostat, LSEG, Natixis CIB Research

As stressed in the recent ECB monetary policy account (see supra), once the second- round effects materialise, this istoo late, thereby forcing the central bank to adopt a more aggressive tightening. To evaluate the risk of second-round effects, the ECB – rightly so –is looking at the short-term inflation expectations from consumers, professional forecasters and market participants. Although the increase of these expectations –albeit above target –remain broadly contained, the recent surge in diesel prices and food in particular –very sensitive for households –could change the situation quickly (Chart 5).The market-based 2-year inflation expectations has already inverted its trend since July amid the renewed tensions in the Middle East causing a substantial increase in energy prices (Chart 6).

Chart 5:Core inflation and survey-based inflation expectations (%) Chart 6:Market-based (swap inflation) inflation expectations in2years (%)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

1-year SPF expectations 1-year Consumers perception 5-year SPF expectations Core inflation 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

3-Jan3-Feb3-Mar3-Apr3-May3-Jun3-Jul 3-Aug3-Sep3-Oct3-Nov3-Dec

2026 2022

Source: Eurostat, ECB, LSEG, Natixis CIB Research Source: Bloomberg, Natixis CIB Research

Since the July ECB meeting, energy prices have increased by up to 8% over the 2026- 2028 forecast horizon and the EUR-USD exchange rate strengthened by around 2% (see Tables A.1-A.3 in the Appendix).

EMEA MACRO SNAPSHOT

4 Softening –albeit somewhat positive –economic growth

In the second quarter of 2026, the euro area's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose to 0.4% (Chart 7)after 0% in Q1 and despite the energy crisis 1 .At the end of the first semester, the carry-over stands at 0.6%. Detailed results in major euro area economies indicate private consumption grew in Q2 while investments were more mixed (negative in France and Germany, positive in Italy and Spain). Moreover, and contrary to last quarter, Ireland contributed positively to euro area’s growth, bringing a0.2 percentage point contribution after -0.3pp (Chart 8)explaining part of the strong rebound experienced in Q2.

Chart 7:Quarterly GDP Growth and contributions by demand components Chart 8:Quarterly GDP Growth and country contributions

Source: Eurostat, Natixis CIB Research Source: Eurostat, Natixis CIB Research

Looking at leading indicators, the August PMI survey for the Euro Area lost momentum after three consecutive months of improvement between May and July. The composite index was unchanged at 52.1 (Chart 9).Even so, the reading was above the consensus expectation of 51.7. The Services component was also broadly unchanged at 51.6 after 51.7 in July. By contrast, the manufacturing index continued to improve, rising by 0.8 points to 52.7 in August, against expectations of 51.8. The survey sub-components show amarked rebound in new orders (+1.3 points to 52.1), which in turn lifted employment to 50.1 (+1.4 points), pushing itback above 50 for the first time since May 2023.

相比之下，服务业的情况则较难解读。在连续三个月的改善之后，该指数在8月陷入停滞。自6月以来，欧洲多地连续遭遇热浪，加上大规模的野火，可能制约了经济活动。旅游业、交通运输和贸易中的许多活动可能都受到了影响。

在国家层面（图10），法国8月最终PMI在服务业指数（从初值48.4下修至48.0，7月为49.6）的影响下，由初值48.8下修至48.5（7月为49.4）。德国8月综合PMI终值环比上升0.5个百分点至51.8。服务业指数连续第二个月徘徊在50临界值附近，达到49.7。然而，制造业指数现已远高于该水平，8月达到56.6，而7月为54.7。在西班牙和意大利，也可以描绘出类似的情况，综合PMI远高于扩张区间，分别为53.6和55.8，这得益于

1季度GDP详细结果预计将在本报告发布后公布

EMEA MACRO SNAPSHOT

5 the services sector (55.2 and 57.8 respectively) but with amanufacturing sector that is losing momentum (at 49 and 47.1 respectively).

Chart 9:Euro area PMIs Chat 10: Country breakdown ofthe PMIs

40 45 50 55 60 65

Jan-21Jun-21Nov-21Apr-22Sep-22Feb-23 Jul-23 Dec-23May-24Oct-24Mar-25Aug-25Jan-26Jun-26

Composite Manufacturing Services 40 45 50 55 60 65

Jan-21Jun-21Nov-21Apr-22Sep-22Feb-23 Jul-23 Dec-23May-24Oct-24Mar-25Aug-25Jan-26Jun-26

Germany France Italy Spain

Source: S&P Global, LSEG, Natixis CIB Research Source: S&P Global, LSEG, Natixis CIB Research

We do not see significant change in the mood of households in the euro area. Their sentiment continues to be negatively affected by the labour market conditions and the erosion of their purchasing power due to higher inflation (Chart 11). Few exceptions at the country level are Spain and Portugal. Some rebound isalso observed in Germany in line with the good performance of the services sector as reflected in the PMI (Chart 12).

Nevertheless, latest releases of soft and hard economic activity data pushed us to revise our GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.9% after 0.5% previously, while keeping unchanged our 2027 forecast.

Chart 11:Euro area consumer confidence index and its unemployment subcomponent Chart 12: Country breakdown ofthe euro area consumer confidence index

-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0

-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

Jan-19Jul-19 Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26Jul-26

Consumer confidence index (lhs)

Major purchases (rhs)

Source: Eurostat, LSEG, Natixis CIB Research Source: Eurostat, LSEG, Natixis CIB Research -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10

Jan-21Jul-21 Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25Jan-26 Germany France Italy Spain

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6 再次（先发制人的？）加息

7月货币政策会议纪要：偏鹰派

在欧洲央行于22-23年7月2026日举行的货币政策会议纪要（于27年8月发布）中，管理委员会成员高度关注中东最新事态发展，将其作为欧洲央行预测不确定性的指标。特别是，成员们强调，由于冲突再次升级，通胀前景仍然容易受到新的冲击，且通胀前景的风险仍偏上行。对此，他们“警告不要对6月HICP数据过于放心，因为中东敌对行动恢复已将能源价格推高，因此最新数据中的短期意外收益预计不会持续”。同样，由于能源（尤其是天然气和柴油）及食品价格上涨，短期通胀预期可能失控的风险也被强调，因为企业和消费者对这些产品特别敏感。

7月会议上的讨论基调审慎，凸显了关于暂停加息周期提议的两个考量。一方面，有观点认为，“与2021-22通胀飙升的情况不同，加息并不能解决通胀上升的根本原因”。另一方面，有观点强调，“如果形势变得足够严峻，表现为通胀预期脱锚、潜在价格压力明显回升的迹象，或企业比往常更快地调整价格，那么预防性行动可能是合理的。有证据表明，及早行动有时成本更低，并降低了落后于曲线的风险。然而，在当前脆弱但并非严峻的情况下，经济接近6月基线展望，最审慎的做法是缓慢推进，这反映了在考虑任何进一步政策步骤之前，等待夏季形势如何演变的期权价值。有人认为，这也能最大限度地减少不必要的利率波动，因为加息可能带来随后利率逆转的某种概率”。

9月之后再次暂停的理由

考虑到自7月会议以来的数据发展（附录中的表A.1-A.3），我们预计欧洲央行将小幅上调其GDP增长预测，同时基本维持其通胀预测不变（表1）。

EMEA MACRO SNAPSHOT

7 Table 1:Natixis forecast ofECB staff projections (% yoy)

2025 2026 2027 2028

HICP inflation Sep -Natixis 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.0

Jun 2.1 3.0 2.3 2.0

Mar 2.1 2.6 2.0 2.1

Core inflation Sep -Natixis 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0

Jun 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.2

Mar 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1

Real GDP Sep -Natixis 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.3

Jun 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.5

Mar 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.4

Forecasts were finalized before 2nd estimate ofQ2 GDP for Natixis and ECB September forecasts.

Source: ECB, Natixis CIB Research .The figures for September 26are the expectations ofNatixis CIB Research

We thus expect another 25bp increase of the three ECB key interest rates on the marginal lending facility, the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility, respectively at 2.90%, 2.65% and 2.50%. This issupported by arather resilient economic activity renewed inflationary pressures in energy prices amid re-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. As shown previously, the strong increase of products to which consumers are sensitive (e.g. diesel and food products) have stopped the decrease of shorter-term inflation expectations –considered by the ECB as aleading indicator of second-round effects. This isalso in line with the latest statements made by several Governing Council members since early August suggesting that apolicy rate hike at the monetary policy meeting next week isvery likely (Table A.4 in the Appendix).

展望9月之后，形势将更加复杂，并取决于三个主要参数。首先，能源产品价格的演变将至关重要。假设到年底中东局势持续紧张，石油和天然气价格——尽管后者更为严峻——将保持高位。2这将是供应中断所致，而加息无法解决这一问题（正如管理委员会成员在7月会议上所强调的那样）。与此同时，我们预计劳动力市场变化不大，工资增长温和，失业率面临一些上行压力。但是，在没有第二轮效应的情况下，我们预计核心通胀将从10月开始逐步放缓，到2027年底趋近于2%的目标水平。其次，尽管我们认为不存在衰退风险，但仍预计今年下半年和明年初经济增长温和。在这方面，我们应继续观察到欧元区大多数国家的私人消费疲弱。第三，汇率可能再次成为关注焦点，正如7月货币政策会议上简要提到的那样。

2我们的大宗商品专家在最近的一份报告中强调，过去一个月卡塔尔LNG装载量缺乏可持续复苏，基本上锁定了10月底欧洲天然气储存提取量处于低位。鉴于消费的季节性上升以及挪威因油田维护而减少的流量，更大的LNG可用性（目前美国墨西哥湾沿岸交付的短期套利有利于西北欧）将无法在注入季节剩余时间内引发过多的库存增加。参见Dahdah, B.和Hancock, J.（2026），"锂价前景是否已重新充电？"，大宗商品简报：3年9月。

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8 政策账户（以及之前的说明）。欧元若升值，将对通胀产生机械性下行压力。

总而言之，我们认为，绝大多数欧洲央行管理委员会成员将选择在9月之后将政策利率维持在2.50%，这一持续期可能直至2027年底。这一观点也得到了部分欧洲央行官员言论的支持，他们强调需要采取小步快走的做法，并避免“加息可能导致随后降息的可能性”。话虽如此，我们相信欧洲央行将维持其数据依赖和逐次会议决策的方式，并在此前保持中性沟通。

EMEA MACRO SNAPSHOT

9

Appendix

Update of the technical assumptions in September 2026 ECB

projections

Table A.1: Oil prices

Future Brent 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Previous cut offdate =15/7/2026 86.30 73.85 71.51 70.55 70.04

Cut off date =28/8/2026 92.33 80.04 74.49 72.16 70.78

Change ($) 6.03 6.18 2.99 1.61 0.74

Change (%) 7.0% 8.4% 4.2% 2.3% 1.1%

Sources: Bloomberg, Natixis CIB Research

Table A.2: Short-Term interest rates

Euribor 3M Forward 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Previous cut offdate =15/7/2026 2.37 2.63 2.68 2.70 2.73

Cut off date =28/8/2026 2.53 2.84 2.93 2.95 2.98

Change (bp) 0.15 0.21 0.25 0.25 0.25

Sources: Bloomberg, Natixis CIB Research

Table A.3: –Exchange rate

Exchange rate NEER (Citi) EUR/USD

Previous cut offdate =15/7/2026 122.31 1.14

Cut off date =28/8/2026 123.38 1.16

Change (%) 0.9% 1.9%

Sources: Bloomberg, Natixis CIB Research

EMEA MACRO SNAPSHOT

10

ECB speech watcher

Many ECB officials anticipate alikely interest rate hike in September, viewing itas necessary to signal commitment to the medium-term target and avoid acting too late. The debate centers on when and how to act, with several advocating for sooner rather than later to prevent greater second-round effects.

Table A.4.: The ECB watcher cheat sheet (ECB, NCBs)

P.Lane

(ECB Chief

Economist) “Hovering around this 3% level isprobably what people are looking atfor the rest ofthis year,”

Lane said. “But that very much depends onwhether there isaresolution tothe crisis." 18/08

P.Cipollone (ECB

Board) “Monetary-policy action needs tobewell calibrated. Inthe event ofasupply side shock, such as

the oilshock, hiking interest rates soastostabilize inflation around the target could dampen

economic growth that isalready affected byanegative shock.” 24/08

I.Schnabel (ECB

Board) “At the current policy rate, inflation isunlikely toreturn totarget over the medium term, and

therefore further tightening will benecessary.” 26/08

J.Nagel

(Bundesbank) “Markets are pricing inaprobability ofmore than 95% that we will raise interest rates at

our September meeting, and Iwould say that the markets have arather good

understanding ofhow we are likely torespond atthis stage.”

“We’re not yet seeing second-round effects inthe core inflation rate.” 2/09

1/09

M.Kocher

(Austria) Upside risks toinflation have increased again recently. Ifthis picture isconfirmed inthe ECB’s

new forecast, Ibelieve another interest-rate hike will benecessary inthe near future.”

“The European economy ismore resilient than many people think itis,showing some

momentum now, more momentum.” 1/09

28/08

G.Makhlouf

（爱尔兰）“我们下周将做出的决定不会让任何人感到意外。” 02/09

O.雷恩（芬兰）“面对这些通胀压力，我们不能表现出自满。” 01/09

P.多伦茨

（斯洛文尼亚）“9月加息以维护我们的通胀目标的论据已经存在。随着新数据的到来，我们看到通胀形势不会自行解决。” 28/08

G.西姆库斯

（立陶宛）“目前所有可用的数据使我认为加息的可能性很大，而且9月的这次加息不会足够。” 1/09

M.卡扎克斯“不能让通胀扎根。减少通胀扎根的一种方法是提高利率。我们已做过一次。” 28/08

D.拉德夫

（保加利亚）“9月仍保持开放，但基于我们目前所知，另一项有分寸的举措值得认真考虑。等到第二轮效应完全显现，可能意味着行动太迟。” 27/08

资料来源：欧洲央行、彭博、Natixis CIB研究

EMEA MACRO SNAPSHOT

11 Table A.5: Economic calendar by the September meeting

Date Event Reference period

07-Sept GDP second estimate Q2

10-Sept ECB Governing Council MPE Forecasts

16-Sept ECB Wage Tracker

17-Sept Final HICP August

18-Sept ECB 1Yand 3YCPI expectations August

23-Sept Flash PMI September

2-Oct Flash HICP September

5-Oct PPI August

16-Oct Final HICP September

23-Oct Flash PMI October

27-Oct ECB Bank Lending Survey

28-30-Oct ECB 1Yand 3YCPI expectations September

29-Oct ECB Governing Council

30-Oct ECB SPF

Source: ECB, Bloomberg, Natixis CIB Research

EMEA MACRO SNAPSHOT

12 Head of CIB Research Head of Macro &Financial Institutions Research

Jean-François ROBIN Nathalie DEZEURE

+33 158 55 1309 +33 158 55 99 93

jean-francois.robin@natixis.com nathalie.dezeure@natixis.com

Head of Europe Macro research Financial Institutions

Alain DURRE, Ph.D. Bouchra RHAJBAL

+33 158 55 60 49 +33 158 55 79 93

alain.durre@natixis.com bouchra.rhajbal@natixis.com

France, Belgium, Euro Area Germany, Euro Area Covered Bonds

Hadrien CAMATTE Bastien AILLET Jennifer LEVY

+33 158 55 39 43 +49 699 715 3358 +33 158 55 05 81

hadrien.camatte@natixis.com bastien.aillet@natixis.com jennifer.levy@natixis.com

Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Euro Area Inflation, Macro modeling, Euro Area

Jesus CASTILLO Patricia FLOREZ CABRA

+33 158 55 99 90 +33 158 55 62 71

jesus.castillo@natixis.com patricia.florezcabra@natixis.com

CEMEA UK, Nordics, Real Estate

Inna MUFTEEVA, CFA Sylwia HUBAR, Ph.D. +33 158 55 52 04 +33 158 55 35 59 inna.mufteeva@natixis.com sylwia.hubar@natixis.com

Assistant Economists

Théa BARTOLETTI Rita BEJJANI Leslie HUYNH

thea.bartoletti@natixis.com rita.bejjani@natixis.com leslie.huynh@natixis.com

Data base

Ludovic DUCROCQ Camille CREUZE Eric RABARISON

+33 158 55 1476 +33 158 55 99 92 +33 158 55 1265 ludovic.ducrocq@natixis.com camille.creuze@natixis.com eric.rabarison@natixis.com

Andriat RAKOTOVAO

+33 158 55 1492 andriatsaramiafara.rakotovao @natixis.com

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