中国的人工智能出海战略：始于模型与治理，终于芯片

关键论点

• 出口顺序至关重要：最先出口的层级（模型、治理）嵌入最快并塑造未来依赖，因此欧洲应在硬件/软件条款尚未确定时尽早参与。
• 开源权重模型降低准入门槛并扩大采用，但持续获取前沿版本取决于中国开发者的后续发布；2026年10月16日限制23类前沿AI技术出口的草案令长期开放性存疑。
• 治理是中国最强的软栈杠杆：WAICO成员约两个月内从29增至38，显示在全球南方的吸引力，但其运作模式基本未经检验，且美国施压伙伴不要加入重复性倡议。
• 稀土出口管制削弱下游吸引力，强化了北京所争取国家推进供应链多元化的理由。

对应原文证据

1. Chinese chips still lag the US’s NVIDIA and, importantly, they are needed to supply China’s own market to reduce excessive dependence on the US 3.Once production capacity increases, Chinese chips can be expected to flood overseas markets at competitive prices.
2. ASIA THEMATIC INSIGHTS 2 How China’s outbound strategy on AI is sequenced is very relevant to Europe, because the first AI-stack layers that China exports will become embedded quickest and will shape future dependencies.
3. The hard stack: energy, compute and chips China’s clearest advantage is its rapid deployment of renewables -sourced electricity, which makes its compute comparatively cheap, attracting international users who pay lower prices to use Chinese AI models when run through Chinese cloud services.