美元与英镑受益于欧元区不断上升的财政与政治风险外汇每日快照

关键论点

• 美元走强更多源于欧元区财政与政治负面进展，而非美国数据：即使利率市场将10月美联储加息预期从约10个基点下调至约5个基点，美元指数仍维持在年内高点附近。
• 9月FOMC会议纪要显示本月无需急于再次加息；许多官员将上次加息视为风险管理，以应对需求强于预期或供给驱动的通胀更持久。
• 欧元抛售已扩大，随着法德国债利差再度走阔，欧元兑英镑跌至约0.8448的年内新低，尽管英国财政担忧不如法国严重。
• 我们仍预计英国央行将在11月开始加息，并可能对进一步加息保持谨慎指引。

对应原文证据

1. 1 8th October 2026 USD & GBP benefitting from building fiscal & political risks in euro area 8 th October 2026 USD: FOMC minutes indicate that Fed is not in a rush in hike again this month The major foreign exchange rates have remained relatively stable overnight with the dollar index continuing to trade close to year-to-date highs. · October 2026
2. The US dollar has continued to trade at stronger levels even as the US rate market has pared back expectations for Fed rate hikes highlighting that recent gains have been driven more by negative developments overseas.
3. After narrowing earlier this week, yield spreads between French and German government bonds have rewidened back out over the last 24 hours encouraging a stronger US dollar. · this week