2026年9月 联邦公开市场委员会回顾

关键论点

• 沃什将此次加息定性为“减少宽松”而非紧缩，立场偏鹰，但未比杰克逊霍尔会议时更鹰。
• MUFG认为SEP受近因偏差影响，历史上曾大幅修正，预计鹰鸽妥协为：10月跳过、12月加息。
• 沃什不依赖单一数据点；2026年四季度风险包括中期选举、战争引发的能源重定价及金融条件波动。
• 沃什认为其他央行紧缩的外溢效应可能有助于抑制全球通胀，从而减少美联储进一步加息的需要。

对应原文证据

1. Warsh leading the hawkish charge, meanwhile SEPs suffer from recency bias Although the 25bp rate hike was what most forecasters (including us) expected after the hot August CPI print, the tone shifted on Fed Day once the press conference started.
2. Chair Warsh just couldn’t hold back his hawkish leaning bias (even though this was not more hawkish versus what we learned in Jackson Hole).
3. Meanwhile we argue to take the SEPs with a grain of salt (as Warsh does) because SEPs tend to have a recency bias and Fed forecasts have in the past seen drastic changes too.