印度央行——加息还是不加息？· 亚洲外汇周报

关键论点

• 印度央行决策结果难料，围绕加息25个基点的预期分歧很大。
• MUFG预测本轮周期共加息50个基点，存在75个基点的风险，理由是增长强劲、流动性充裕、信贷回升、财政支持以及通胀上行风险。
• 印度卢比OIS定价已偏高，进一步鹰派重定价空间有限。
• 亚洲外汇面临多重事件风险：中国数据、中欧谈判、巴西选举和OPEC+评估，同时美元仍受支撑。

对应原文证据

1. The focus in Asia will be led in particular by a finely balanced Reserve Bank of India decision on 7 October.
2. We have 50bps of rate hikes in our forecast profile, and have mentioned that there could be a risk of 75bps in total this cycle, given that growth is strong, liquidity is abundant, credit growth is picking up, fiscal policy is supportive, while higher commodity prices and adverse weather conditions lend inflation risk to the upside in India.
3. Elsewhere, we will get inflation data points out of several Asian markets such as the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Taiwan.