MUFG 美国宏观策略 央行观点 2026年9月 FOMC 前瞻 v3

关键论点

• MUFG基准情景为中性加息25个基点，投票12比0，理由是劳动力市场平衡且通胀具有粘性。
• 经济预测摘要预计将2026年中位数点阵图上调至两次加息，长期点阵图微升至3.125%，并保留未来降息。
• 若出现多张反对票或沃什暗示未启动加息周期，则构成鸽派加息（20%）；若点阵图显示2027年不降息，则构成鹰派加息（20%）。
• 市场定价的加息次数多于美联储可能兑现的次数；油价二轮效应和去通胀缓慢是主要的鹰派驱动因素。

对应原文证据

1. Dovish Hike 20% ▪ If there are multiple dissents for a hold, the dots do not project 2 hikes for the balance of 2026 (and maintain multiple cuts to reach long-run dot), and/or Chair Warsh ’s tone implies that hiking now is not indicative that a hiking cycle has started (one and done?), these would individually or collective be dovish. · 2026
2. Neutral Hike Base-Case 55% ▪ Statement: We expect language to remain largely the same, highlighting the balanced nature of the labor market following a strong August NFP report and the relative strength of economic growth, though it may include a reference to the “persistent stickiness” of inflation being above target to justify tightening by an incremental 25 bps.
3. We expect Chair Warsh to try to aim for a 12/0 vote in favor of a hike.