日元周报 · 美元/日元：日本秋季假期期间警惕波动

关键论点

• 美联储一致加息并暗示近期可能再加息，与日本央行7比2分歧投票及未给出下次加息时点形成对比，利差仍不利于日元。
• 植田行长称连续加息或大幅加息属例外情况，表明日本央行相对美联储、欧洲央行和澳洲联储并不特别鹰派。
• 本月早些时候日元升值部分源于美方要求日本放弃再通胀政策，但内阁改组及再通胀派委员反对加息后，部分涨幅可能回吐。
• 秋季假期日本市场参与者减少、商业日元流动受限，财务大臣片山重申协调干预仍有可能。

对应原文证据

1. The USD/JPY fell back to below 155.50 on 17 September, partly due to lower crude oil prices.
2. The BOJ raised its policy rate by 25bp as expected, but the yen was sold after two policy board members voted against the decision, sending the USD/JPY above 157.
3. Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference initially prompted some yen buying, but the move ultimately reversed and the yen weakened again, with USD/JPY rising to above 157.50 (Figure 1).