日本经济日历 · 【固定收益评论】

关键论点

• 三菱日联摩根士丹利证券预计同口径固定员工计划现金工资同比小幅加速至+2.9%；9月短观确认劳动力市场趋紧。
• 由于原油价格上涨推高通胀，预计整体实际家庭支出同比将进一步小幅收缩。
• 经常项目顺差预计同比收窄：尽管日元贬值提振第一次所得顺差，原油进口量恢复及价格高企令贸易收支大幅恶化。
• 同步指数可能环比下降，因工业生产骤降和零售销售走弱，熊本地震后汽车产量下滑亦是拖累。

对应原文证据

1. 3mo T-Bill auction (planned issuance: 3.3 trillion yen); announcement of results, 12:30 Regional Economic Report We expect overall real household spending to contract slightly further YoY as higher crude oil prices push up inflation.
2. While yen depreciation likely boosted the primary income surplus, recovering crude oil import volumes and persistently high prices likely caused the trade balance to deteriorate sharply.
3. 6mo T-Bill auction (planned issuance: 3.0 trillion yen); announcement of results, 12:30 30yr JGB auction (planned issuance: 600 billion yen); announcement of results, 12:35 Economy Watchers Survey (Sep) BoJ branch managers' meeting The coincident CI likely fell MoM, reflecting a sharp decline in industrial production and weaker retail sales.