杰克逊霍尔会议改变风险平衡，但美元涨幅温和外汇每日快照

关键论点

• 美联储主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔的鹰派讲话提高加息风险，但市场反应温和，因为FOMC最近两次会议未加息且理事会比地区联储主席更鸽派。
• 本月所有G10央行开会，部分加息已被定价，但能源价格上涨可能导致鹰派言论从而抑制美元购买。
• 即将公布的非农就业和CPI数据对美联储决策至关重要；数据疲软将支持按兵不动，但沃什的讲话暗示决策难料。
• 大宗商品价格上涨，特别是欧洲天然气，可能影响央行政策并限制美元涨幅。
• 近期'美元贬值'情绪以及美国偏好弱势美元也抑制了美元买盘。

对应原文证据

1. Firstly, as laid out below, every G10 central bank is meeting this month and some will be hiking, some may surprise and hike and some will remain on hold. · this month
2. But if energy prices remain elevated and/or grind higher the tone of rhetoric from most central bankers is likely to be hawkish and this could well be curtailing the appetite to buy the US dollar at this stage.
3. Hence, the data points over the coming few weeks ahead of the FOMC remain key and could once again shift the balance of risks back in favour of a hold.