有趣的相对价值图表：九月央行周期间唯独日本未出现收益率曲线趋平【固定收益评论】

关键论点

• 日本是9月央行周后唯一未出现国债收益率曲线趋平的主要经济体，其曲线反而略微陡峭化。
• 日本央行7票对2票的分歧加息及内阁改组中与再通胀相关官员的留任，可能被市场解读为谨慎且倾向再通胀的政策立场。
• 不仅是全球通胀压力，日本特有因素也在推动市场对央行行动滞后的担忧重燃。
• 三菱日联认为2s10s日本国债利差不太可能收窄，并警告10年期日本国债收益率可能高于预期。

对应原文证据

1. Sharp rise for inflation expectations relative to other major markets ■ Concerns about the BoJ falling behind the curve likely to persist.
2. In that case, 2s10s spread unlikely to narrow; wary of higher-than-expected 10yr JGB yield In this report we examine changes in government bond yield curves across countries following the central bank week in September (Graph 1).
3. In September, the ECB and the Fed each decided to raise interest rates by 25bp on the 10th and 16th, respectively.