印度：印度央行（2026年10月）——对市场而言足够偏鹰派吗？外汇焦点

关键论点

• 印度央行加息25个基点至5.50%，并将立场转为校准式紧缩，但沟通并未释放急剧加息周期的信号。
• MUFG预计2027年2月将再加息25个基点至5.75%，并存在最终升至6.00%的风险。
• 印度卢比前端OIS（1年期6.26%，2年期6.45%）已计入大量紧缩预期，因此MUFG不倾向于追高利率。
• 预测USD/INR将逐步升至2027年三季度97.50，上行空间受印度央行外汇干预和充足储备限制。

对应原文证据

1. Key Points ▪ RBI raised its key repo rate by 25bps to 5.50% from 5.25% in its Oct 2026 policy meeting, and shifted its policy stance to “calibrated tightening” from neutral previously. · 2026
2. It’s true that RBI raised both growth and inflation forecasts, with an increasing focus on possible broadening and second-round effects on inflation.
3. ▪ All this could of course change depending on how India’s growth -inflation dynamics play out coupled with external conditions including extent of Fed rate hikes and global commodity prices.