外汇量化：哪些外汇信号正在胜出

关键论点

• 套息今年重新成为领先策略族，策略主导权随宏观扰动轮动，如2025年关税冲击与2026年美伊冲突。
• 日元在所有策略族及三个持有期上均呈一致看空，利差、估值与风险同时指向同一信号。
• 加元空头信心次之，受增长疲弱、关税逆风及受通胀约束的央行支撑。
• 英镑与澳元保持中性，因鹰派央行与财政、商品及估值因素信号真正分裂。

对应原文证据

1. • JPY and CAD show the strongest bearish conviction vs. USD, supported by signals across valuation, carry and volatility strategies.
2. The “Liberation Day” tariff shock in April-2025 coincided with higher FX volatility and a deterioration in Carry performance, before the initial market reaction faded and carry positions were rebuilt to pre-event levels. · 2025
3. The US-Iran conflict in early 2026 marked another shift in the systematic backdrop, as the energy shock and changing policy expectations generated stronger directional moves across G10 FX, this created a more supportive environment for momentum. · 2026